Whatever the case, a wounded ISS will have been fairly rotten luck. Back in 2017, scientists from NASA and a Russian space contractor put the odds of this worst-case scenario at 1 in 121. As of late 2025, NASA told WIRED the risk of debris causing a depressurization event in any six-month period was somewhere between 1 in 36 and 1 in 170.
Урсула фон дер Ляйен. Фото: Valentyn Ogirenko / Reuters
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He says the findings are a reminder that while the effects of global warming can be slow at times, there are moments of dramatic change.